# Defining NLME models in Pumas

We provide two model types, the `PumasModel`

and the `PumasEMModel`

. The `PumasModel`

provides great flexibility, allowing a wide array of random effects distributions and error models and the best support for different approximation methods, missing only SAEM. The `PumasEMModel`

is more structured, supporting just a subset of the models expressible by a `PumasModel`

, but uses this structure to enable the optimizations required to make SAEM efficient.

Instances of the `PumamEMModel`

and `PumasModel`

type are constructed using a macro based domain-specific language (DSL) using the macros `@emmodel`

and `@model`

respectively.

## The `@model`

macro interface

The simplest way to define an NLME model in Julia is to use the `@model`

macro. We can define the simplest model of them all, the empty model, as follows:

```
@model begin
end
```

This creates a model with no parameters, no covariates, no dynamics, ..., nothing! To populate the model, we need to include one of the possible model blocks. The possible blocks are:

`@param`

, fixed effects specifications`@random`

, random effects specifications`@covariates`

, covariate names`@pre`

, pre-processing variables for the dynamic system and statistical specification`@dosecontrol`

, specification of any dose control parameters present in the model`@vars`

, shorthand notation`@init`

, initial conditions for the dynamic system`@dynamics`

, dynamics of the model`@derived`

, statistical modeling of dependent variables`@observed`

, model information to be stored in the model solution

The definitions in these blocks are generally only available in the blocks further down the list.

`@param`

: Population parameters

The population parameters are specified in the `@param`

block. In a `PumasModel`

, variables that enter the model can either be defined in terms of the domain they come from or their distribution if they're random variables. Variables defined by their domain are specified by an `in`

(or ∈, written via \in) statement that connects a parameter name and a domain, and random variables are specified by an `~`

statement that connects a name with a distribution. For example, to specify θ as a real scalar in a model, one would write:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θ ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0, upper=17.0)
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: θ
Random effects:
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

which creates a model with a parameter that has a lower and upper bound on the allowed values.

Pumas.jl does not expect specific names for parameters, dependent variables, and so on. This means that fixed effects do not have to be called θ, random effects don't have to be called η, variability (variance-covariance) matrices for random effects don't have to be called Ω, and so on Pick whatever is natural for your context.

Different domains are available for different purposes. Their names and purposes are:

`RealDomain`

for scalar parameters`VectorDomain`

for vectors`PDiagDomain`

for positive definite matrices with diagonal structure`PSDDomain`

for general positive semi-definite matrices

Different domains can be used when we want to have our parameters be scalars or vectors (`RealDomain`

vs `VectorDomain`

) or have certain properties (`PDiagDomain`

and `PSDDomain`

). The simplest way of specifying amodel is in terms of all scalar parameters:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θCL ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=50.0)
θV ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=500.0)
ω²η ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=20.0)
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: θCL, θV, ω²η
Random effects:
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

where we have defined a separate variable for population clearance and volume as well as the variance of a scalar (univariate) random effect. The same model could be written using vectors and matrix type domains using something like the following:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θ ∈ VectorDomain(2, lower=[0.001, 0.001], upper=[50.0, 500.0])
Ωη ∈ PDiagDomain(1) # no lower or upper keywords!
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: θ, Ωη
Random effects:
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

Notice, that we collapsed the two parameters `θCL`

and `θV`

into a single vector `θ`

, and if we want to use the elements in the model you will have to use indexing `θ[1]`

for `θCL`

and `θ[2]`

for `θV`

. It is also necessary to specify the dimension of the vector which is two in this case. The `PDiagDomain`

domain type is special. It makes `Ωη`

have the interpretation of a matrix type, specifically a diagonal matrix. Additionally, it tells Pumas that when `fit`

ing the multivariate parameter should be kept positive definite. The obvious use case here is variance-covariance matrices, and specifically it's useful for random effect vectors where each random effect is independent of the other. We will get back to this below.

Finally, we have the `PSDDomain`

. This is different from `PDiagDomain`

mainly by representing a "full" variance-covariance matrix. This means that one random effect can correlate with other random effects.

```
@model begin
@param begin
θ ∈ VectorDomain(2, lower=[0.001, 0.001], upper=[50.0, 500.0])
Ωη ∈ PSDDomain(1) # no lower upper!
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: θ, Ωη
Random effects:
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

Besides actual domains, it is possible to define parameters in terms of their priors. A model with a parameter that has a multivariate normal (`MvNormal`

) prior can be defined as:

```
μ_prior = [0.1, 0.3]
Σ_prior = [1.0 0.1
0.1 3.0]
@model begin
@param begin
θ ~ MvNormal(μ_prior, Σ_prior)
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: θ
Random effects:
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

A prior can be wrapped in a `Constrained(prior; lower=lv, upper=uv)`

to constrain values to be between `lv`

and `uv`

. See `?Constrained`

for more details.

Many of the NLME model definition portions require the specification of probability distributions. The distributions in Pumas are generally defined by the Distributions.jl library. All of the Distributions.jl `Distribution`

types are able to be used throughout the Pumas model definitions. Multivariate domains defines values which are vectors while univariate domains define values which are scalars. For the full documentation of the `Distribution`

types, please see the Distributions.jl documentation.

`@random`

: Random effects

The novelty of the NLME approach comes from the individual variability. We just saw that `@param`

was used to specify fixed effects. The appropriate block for specifying random effects is simply called `@random`

. In a `PumasModel`

, the parameters specified in this block can be scalar or vectors just as fixed parameters, but they will always be defined by the distribution they are assumed to follow.

The parameters of a `PumasModel`

are defined by a `~`

(read: distributed as) expression:

```
@model begin
@param begin
ωη ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001)
end
@random begin
η ~ Normal(0, ωη)
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: ωη
Random effects: η
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

We see that we defined a variability parameter `ωη`

to parameterize the standard deviation of the univariate `Normal`

distribution of the η. We put a lower bound of `0.0001`

because a standard deviation *cannot* be negative, and a standard deviation of exactly zero would lead to a degenerate distribution. We always advise putting bounds on variables whenever possible. We also advise using the unicode `²`

(\^2 + Tab) to show that it's a variance, though this is optional. The `Normal`

distribution Distributions.jl requires two positional arguments: the mean (here: 0) and the standard deviation (here: the square root of our variance). For more details type `?Normal`

in the REPL.

Non-Gaussian random effects can also be defined as such:

```
@model begin
@param begin
α ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001)
β ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001)
end
@random begin
η ~ Beta(α, β)
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: α, β
Random effects: η
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

The following are all the continuous univariate distributions available for use in a `PumasModel`

's `@random`

block. For more details on any distribution, type `?`

in the REPL followed by the distribution name, e.g. `?Beta`

.

`Arcsine`

`Beta`

`BetaPrime`

`Biweight`

`Cauchy`

`Chi`

`Chisq`

`Cosine`

`Epanechnikov`

`Erlang`

`Exponential`

`FDist`

`Frechet`

`Gamma`

`GeneralizedExtremeValue`

`GeneralizedPareto`

`Gumbel`

`InverseGamma`

`InverseGaussian`

`Kolmogorov`

`LocationScale`

`Logistic`

`LogitNormal`

`LogNormal`

`NormalCanon`

`PGeneralizedGaussian`

`Rayleigh`

`Semicircle`

`SymTriangularDist`

`TDist`

`Triweight`

`Uniform`

`Weibull`

It is, of course, possible to have as many univariate random effects as you want:

```
@model begin
@param begin
ωη ∈ VectorDomain(3, lower=0.0001)
end
@random begin
η1 ~ Normal(0, sqrt(ωη[1]))
η2 ~ Normal(0, sqrt(ωη[2]))
η3 ~ Normal(0, sqrt(ωη[3]))
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: ωη
Random effects: η1, η2, η3
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

Notice the use of indexing into the `ωη`

parameter that is now a vector. Other ways of parameterizing random effects include vector (multivariate) distributions:

```
@model begin
@param begin
ωη ∈ VectorDomain(3, lower=0.0001)
end
@random begin
η ~ MvNormal(sqrt.(ωη))
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: ωη
Random effects: η
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

where `η`

will have a diagonal variance-covariance structure because we input a vector of standard deviations. This can also be achieved using the `PDiagDomain`

as we saw earlier and then we don't have to worry about the `lower`

keyword:

```
@model begin
@param begin
Ωη ∈ PDiagDomain(3)
end
@random begin
η ~ MvNormal(Ωη)
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: Ωη
Random effects: η
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

Do notice that `Ωη`

is not to be considered a vector here, but an actual diagonal matrix, so `Ωη`

is now the (diagonal) variance-covariance matrix, not a vector of standard deviations. The `@random`

block is the same if we allow full covariance structure:

```
@model begin
@param begin
Ωη ∈ PSDDomain(3)
end
@random begin
η ~ MvNormal(Ωη)
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: Ωη
Random effects: η
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

For cases where you have several random effects with the exact same distribution, such as between-occasion-variability (BOV), it is convenient to construct a single vector η that has diagonal variance-covariance structure with identical variances down the diagonal. This can be achieved using a special constructor that takes in the dimension and the standard deviation:

```
@model begin
@param begin
ω²η ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001)
end
@random begin
η ~ MvNormal(4, sqrt(ω²η))
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters: ω²η
Random effects: η
Covariates:
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

You could use four scalar `η`

's as shown above, but for BOV it is useful to encode the occasions using integers 1, 2, 3, ..., N and simply index into `η`

using `η[OCC]`

where `OCC`

is the occasion covariate.

In the context of estimation using the `fit`

function all variables must come from a univariate or multivariate normal distribution. Other distributions can be specified when solving or simulating the model.

`@covariates`

The covariates in the remaining model blocks have to be specified in the `@covariates`

block. This information is used to generate efficient code for expanding covariate information from each subject when solving the model or evaluating likelihood contributions from observations. The format is simply to either use a one-liner:

```
@model begin
@covariates weight age OCC
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters:
Random effects:
Covariates: weight, age, OCC
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

or as a block:

```
@model begin
@covariates begin
weight
age
OCC
end
end
# output
PumasModel
Parameters:
Random effects:
Covariates: weight, age, OCC
Dynamical variables:
Derived:
Observed:
```

The block form is mostly useful if there a lot of covariates. Otherwise, the one-liner is preferred.

`@pre`

: Pre-processing of input to dynamics and derived

Before we move to the actual dynamics of the model (if there are any) and the statistical model of the observed variables we need to do some preprocessing of parameters and covariates to get our rates and variables ready for our ODEs or distributions. This is done in the `@pre`

block.

In the `@pre`

block all calculations are written as if they happen at some arbitrary point in time `t`

. Let us see an example:

```
@model begin
# Fixed parameters
@param begin
θCL ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001, upper=20.0)
θV ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001, upper=91.0)
θbioav ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001, upper=1.0)
ω²η ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001)
end
# Random parameters
@random begin
η ~ MvNormal(4, sqrt(ω²η))
end
# Covariate enumeration
@covariates weight age OCC
# Preprocessing of input to dynamics and derived
@pre begin
CL = θCL*sqrt(weight)/age + η[OCC]
V = θV*sin(t)
end
end
```

We see that when we assign the right-hand side to `CL`

, it involves weight, age and occasion counter, OCC. These might all be recorded as time-varying, especially the last one. The first line of `@pre`

then means that whenever `CL`

is referenced in the dynamic model or in the statistical model it will have been calculated with the covariates evaluated at the appropriate time. The next line that defines the volume of distribution, `V`

, shows this by explicitly using `t`

(a reserved keyword) to model `V`

as something that varies with time.

Only variables explicitly defined in `pre`

can be used in the `@dynamics`

block below. This means that even parameters that require no further pre-processing before they're using in the model will have to be assigned a name in `@pre`

. For example, the following example is the appropriate way to specify a parameter `V`

that is going to be used in the model:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θV ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.0001, upper=91.0)
end
@pre begin
V = θV
end
end
```

If you ommit the definition of `V`

and try to use `θV`

directly in the model, you will get an error!

`@dosecontrol`

: Dose Control Parameters

```
@dosecontrol begin
bioav = (Depot=θbioav, Central=0.4)
end
```

The `@dosecontrol`

block controls the dose control parameters (DCPs) of the model. The line sets bioavailability for a `Depot`

compartment to a parameter in our model `θbioav`

, and bioavailability of another compartment `Central`

to a fixed value of 0.4. If a compartment is not mentioned in the `NamedTuple`

it will be set to 1.0. Other DCPs are: `lags`

, `rate`

, and `duration`

. For more information on these parameters, see the Dose Control Parameters (DCP) page.

The `@dosecontrol`

block does not share computations with `@pre`

. The available variables are the same as in `@pre`

. These are those defined in `@param`

, `@random`

, `@covariates`

, the current time `t`

, and events of the subject.

The dose control parameters are entered as `NamedTuple`

s. If a DCP is just set for one-compartment to have the rest default to 1.0 it is a common mistake to write `rate = (Depot=θ)`

instead of `rate = (Depot=θbioav,)`

. Notice the trailing `,`

in the second expression which is required to construct a `NamedTuple`

in Julia.

`@vars`

: Short-hand notation

Suppose we have a model with a dynamic variable `Central`

and a volume of distribution `V`

. You can define short-hand notation for the implied plasma concentration to be used elsewhere in the model in `@vars`

:

```
@model begin
...
@vars begin
conc = Central/V
end
end
```

While some users find `@vars`

useful we advise users to use it with caution. Short-hand notation involving dynamic variables might make the `@dynamics`

block harder to read. Short-hand notation that doesn't not involve dynamic variables should rather just be specified in `@pre`

. `@vars`

is specific to `PumasModel`

s.

`@init`

: Initializing the dynamic system

This block defines the initial conditions of the dynamical model in terms of the parameters, random effects, and pre-processed variables. It is defined by a series of equality (`=`

) statements. For example, to set the initial condition of the Response dynamical variable to be the value of the 5th term of the parameter `θ`

, we would use the syntax:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θ ∈ VectorDomain(3, lower=[0.0,0.0,1.0], upper=[3.0,1.0,4.0])
end
@init begin
Depot = θ[2]
end
end
```

Any variable omitted from this block is given the default initial condition of 0. If the block is omitted, then all dynamical variables are initialized at 0.

Note that the special value `:=`

can be used to define intermediate statements that will not be carried outside of the block.

`@dynamics`

: The dynamic model

The `@dynamics`

block defines the nonlinear function from the parameters to the derived variables via a dynamical (differential equation) model. It can currently be specified either by an analytical solution type, an ordinary differential equation (ODE) or a combination of the two.

The analytical solutions are defined in the Analytical Solutions and Differential Equations page and can be invoked via the name. For example:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θCL ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
θVc ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
end
@pre begin
CL = θCL
Vc = θVc
end
@dynamics Central1
end
```

defines the dynamical model as the one compartment model `Central1`

represents. The model has two required parameters: `CL`

and `Vc`

. These have to be defined in `@pre`

when this model is used. All models with analytical solutions have the required parameters listed in their docstring which can be seen by typing `?Central1`

in the REPL. Alternatively, it is listed in the documentation on the Analytical Solutions page.

For a system of ODEs that has to be numerically solved, the dynamical variables are defined by their derivative expression. A derivative expression is given by a variable's derivative (specified by `'`

) and an equality (`=`

). For example, the following defines a model equivalent to the model above:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θCL ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
θVc ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
end
@pre begin
CL = θCL
Vc = θVc
end
@dynamics begin
Central' = -CL/Vc*Central
end
end
```

Variable aliases defined in the `@vars`

are accessible in this block. Additionally, the variable `t`

is reserved for the solver time if you want to use something like `sin(t)`

in your model formulation.

Note that any Julia function defined outside of the `@model`

block can be invoked in the `@dynamics`

block.

`@reactions`

: The dynamics model in chemical arrow notation

The `@reactions`

block is a stand-in replacement for the `@dynamics`

block, and the two serve the same purpose. However, in the `@reactions`

block, the modeled interactions are represented through a chemical arrow notation. For example, `(k_f, k_b), A + B <--> C`

represents the association and dissociation between `A`

and `B`

to form the complex `C`

at forward rate `k_f`

and backward rate `k_b`

. The equivalent ODE representation would be:

\[\begin{align*} \frac{dA(t)}{dt} =& r_{b} \cdot C(t) - r_{f} \cdot A(t) \cdot B(t) \\ \frac{dB(t)}{dt} =& r_{b} \cdot C(t) - r_{f} \cdot A(t) \cdot B(t) \\ \frac{dC(t)}{dt} =& - r_{b} \cdot C(t) + r_{f} \cdot A(t) \cdot B(t) \end{align*}\]

A simple two-compartment model could be implemented using the `@reactions`

block via:

```
model = @model begin
@param begin
tvcl ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.)
tvv ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.)
tvka ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.)
end
@pre begin
CL = tvcl
Vc = tvv
Ka = tvka
end
@reactions begin
Ka, Depot --> Central
CL/Vc, Central --> 0
end
end
```

The resulting dynamics can be latexified and rendered as described in Model Representation:

```
using Latexify
latexify(model, :reactions)
```

\begin{align*} \frac{dDepot(t)}{dt} =& - Ka \cdot Depot(t) \\ \frac{dCentral(t)}{dt} =& Ka \cdot Depot(t) - \frac{CL \cdot Central(t)}{Vc} \end{align*}

`latexify(model, :reactions; arrow=true)`

\begin{align*} \ce{ Depot &->[Ka] Central}\\ \ce{ Central &->[CL \cdot \mathrm{inv}\left( Vc \right)] \varnothing} \end{align*}

The syntax for the arrow notation could be described as `rates`

, `reactants`

, `arrow`

, and `products`

:

`arrow`

determines the type of reaction modeled. The most commonly used arrows are`-->`

and`<-->`

for uni- and bi-directional mass action reactions, respectively.`reactants`

and`products`

are essentially what you had before and what you will have after the reaction. Zero denotes the empty set and allows you to create products out of nothing (`0 --> A`

) or to degrade reactants into nothing (`A --> 0`

).`rates`

describe the rates at which an interaction occurs. If the same expression represents more than one actual reaction (like the association and dissociation in the above example), then`rates`

should be a tuple with one rate for each such reaction. The rates are often parameters, as defined in the`@pre`

block, but could also be more complicated expressions involving both parameters and variables. For example,`A`

could activate the production of`B`

via a Michaelis-Menten function through`v * A / (k + A), 0 --> B`

.

The parsing and interpretation of this syntax is done by Catalyst.jl and the documentation of their DSL contains further information on how you can specify your reactions.

The main benefit of the `@reactions`

syntax is that you can let ** one** interaction be described in

**line of code. In the common system-of-equations representation, you would often have that a single reaction gives rise to terms in multiple different equations. When you wish to modify such a reaction, you must then be careful to modify all the terms related to this reaction correctly lest your model might still run but give you an incorrect result. This mental bookkeeping that we have to do is not very burdensome in the small demos we have here but can pose real problems in larger models. The**

*one*`@reactions`

syntax may then help to keep your models nice and tidy. `@derived`

: Statistical modeling of observed variables in a `PumasModel`

This block is used to specify the assumed distributions of observed variables that are derived from the blocks above in a `PumasModel`

. All variables are referred to as the subject's observation times which means they are vectors. This means we have to use "dot calls" on functions of dynamic variables, parameters, variables from `@pre`

, etc.

```
@model begin
@param begin
θCL ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
θVc ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
ωη ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=20.0)
end
@pre begin
CL = θCL
Vc = θVc
end
@dynamics begin
Central' = -CL/Vc*Central
end
@derived begin
cp := @. Central/Vc
dv ~ @. Normal(cp, ωη)
end
end
```

We define `cp`

(concentration in plasma) using `:=`

which means that the variable `cp`

will not be stored in the output you get when evaluating the model's `@derived`

block. In many cases it is easier to simply write it out like this:

```
@derived begin
dv ~ @. Normal(Central/Vc, ωη)
end
```

This will be slightly faster. However, sometimes it might be helpful to use `:=`

for intermediary calculations in complicated expressions. An example is the proportional error model:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θCL ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
θVc ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
ωη_add ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=20.0)
ωη_prop ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=20.0)
end
@pre begin
CL = θCL
Vc = θVc
end
@dynamics begin
Central' = -CL/Vc*Central
end
@derived begin
cp := @. Central/Vc
dv ~ @. Normal(cp, sqrt(ωη_add^2 + (cp*ωη_prop)^2))
end
end
```

Where we take advantage of the `:=`

line to only calculate the concentration *once*.

`@observed`

: Sampled observations

If you wish to store some information from the model solution or calculate a variable based on the model solutions and parameters that has nothing to do with the statistical modeling it is useful to define these variables in the `@observed`

block. A simple example could be that you want to store a scaled plasma concentration. This could be written like the following:

```
@model begin
@param begin
θCL ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
θVc ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=10.0)
ω²η ∈ RealDomain(lower=0.001, upper=20.0)
end
@pre begin
CL = θCL
Vc = θVc
end
@dynamics begin
Central' = -CL/Vc*Central
end
@observed begin
cp1000 = @. 1000*Central/Vc
end
end
```

which will cause functions like `simobs`

to store the simulated plasma concentration multiplied by a thousand.

This block is `PumasModel`

-only.

`@metadata`

and Descriptions

Additional details related to a `PumasModel`

can be included in an optional `@metadata`

block. These take the form of key/value pairs defined with `=`

as follows where that values can take on `<:Any`

value.

```
@model begin
@metadata begin
desc = "A short description of the model."
timeu = u"hr"
end
end
```

In the above example a textual description of the model is provided by the `desc`

key. It must be written in plaintext and should preferably not take up more than a single line. The `timeu`

key is assigned a `Unitful`

value to describe the units used in the model. At present `desc`

and `timeu`

are the only metadata keys that are used.

In addition to the `@metadata`

block, individual parameters, covariates, and any other named components within your models can include a short "docstring" to help readers better understand the purpose of each name. They can be added to your models in the same manner as normal docstrings used to document functions and types in normal Julia code. For example:

```
@model begin
@param begin
"Clerance (L/hr)"
tvcl ∈ RealDomain(lower = 0, init = 3.2)
"Volume (L)"
tvv ∈ RealDomain(lower = 0, init = 16.4)
"Absorption rate constant (h-1)"
tvka ∈ RealDomain(lower = 0, init = 3.8)
"Bioavailability"
tvbio ∈ RealDomain(lower = 0, init=0.7)
"""
- ΩCL
- ΩVc
- ΩKa
"""
Ω ∈ PDiagDomain(init = [0.04,0.04,0.04, 0.04])
"Proportional RUV"
σ_p ∈ RealDomain(lower = 0.0001, init = 0.2)
end
@random begin
η ~ MvNormal(Ω)
end
@covariates begin
"0 PO, 1 IV"
formulation
"Body Weight (kg)"
wt
"Age (years)"
age
"Race"
racen
"Gender"
gender
end
@pre begin
CL = tvcl * exp(η[1])
Vc = tvv * exp(η[2])
Ka = tvka * exp(η[3])
end
@dosecontrol begin
bioav = (Depot = tvbio * exp(η[4]),)
end
@dynamics Depots1Central1
@derived begin
cp := @. Central/Vc
"CTMx Concentrations (ng/mL)"
dv ~ @. Normal(cp, cp*σ_p)
end
end
```

For any non-`RealDomain`

parameters you must provide a description for each element in the form of a list of descriptions, such as used to describe `Ω ∈ PDiagDomain`

in the example above.

Always keep descriptions reasonably short, but still clear. They are used within plot labels, which have limited space available, to provide additional details.

## The `@emmodel`

macro interface

The `PumasEMModel`

requires at least two blocks: an `@error`

block describing the error model, and either an `@param`

or `@random`

block. An example minimal `PumasEMModel`

is as follows:

```
@emmodel begin
@random begin
p ~ 1 | LogitNormal
end
@error begin
y ~ Bernoulli(p)
end
end
```

The possible blocks are:

`@param`

and`@random`

: Defines fixed and random effects, e.g.`julia @random begin CL ~ 1 + wt | LogNormal θbioav ~ 1 | LogitNormal end`

Distributions specify the parameter's support. Only `Normal`

(-∞,∞) `LogNormal`

(0,∞), and `LogitNormal`

(0,1) are currently supported.

These define 1 unconstrained parameter per term in the formula, for example `CL = exp(μ + wt * β + η)`

where `μ, β ∈ (-∞,∞)`

and `wt`

is a covariate constant with respect to time. `η`

is a random effect. The `@param`

block is equivalent, with the exception that there is no random effect `η`

. These variables are accessible in `@pre`

, `@dosecontrol`

, `@dynamics`

, `@post`

, and `@error`

blocks:

`@param`

: Defines population parameters without a random component.`@random`

: Defines population parameters with a random component.`@covariance`

: Defines size of the diagonal blocks of the covariance of the random effects.`@covariates`

: Covariates available in the`@pre`

,`@dosecontrol`

,`@dynamics`

, and`@post`

blocks.`@pre`

: Block evaluated before the`@dynamics`

.`@dosecontrol`

: Block specifying dose control parameters. Function of`@param`

and`@random`

variables only.`@init`

: return initial conditions for dynamical variables.`@dynamics`

: Dynamics, equivalent to the functionality in the`@model`

macro.`@post`

: Block evalauted after the`@dynamics`

and before the`@error`

.`@error`

: Block describing the error model. Dispersion parameters are implicit.`Y ~ ProportionalNormal(μ)`

indicates that`Y`

has a`Normal`

distribution with mean`μ`

.`Y`

must be observed subject data, while`μ`

can can be defined in the`@param`

,`@random`

,`@pre`

,`@dynamics`

, or`@post`

blocks.

The `@param`

and `@random`

blocks differ between the `PumasModel`

and `PumasEMModel`

DSLs, while while `@vars`

and `@observed`

are `PumasModel`

-only and `@post`

and `@error`

are `PumasEMMOdel`

-only.

`@param`

: Population parameters

The `@param`

block of a `PumasEMModel`

defined with `@emmodel`

has a different syntax from the `@param`

block of a `PumasModel`

defined with `@model`

. For a `PumasEMModel`

, domains are specified by a distribution with matching support: `Normal`

for the reals, `LogNormal`

for positive reals, and `LogitNormal`

for those restricted to the unit interval. Only scalar distributions are supported. See the model components documentation for more details. For example, to specify `θ ∈ (0,17)`

:

```
@emmodel begin
@param begin
unitθ ~ 1 | LogitNormal
end
@pre begin
θ = 17*unitθ
end
@error begin # `@error` block is mandatory for PumasEMModels
y ~ Normal(θ)
end
end
# output
PumasEMModel
Parameters without random effects:
unitθ ~ (1,) | LogitNormal
```

Unlike in a `PumasModel`

, variables defined in the `@param`

block are available in the `@dynamics`

, `@post`

, and `@error`

blocks.

While more complicated transforms such as the `PSDomain`

aren't supported, they could be applied manually in the `@pre`

block. However, because the `Ω`

parameters are implicit, this is better handled in the `@covariance`

block.

`@random`

: Random effects

In a `PumasEMModel`

, the `@random`

block uses the same syntax as the `@param`

block, and is also restricted to only the `Normal`

, `LogNormal`

, and `LogitNormal`

distributions. The covariance matrix of the random effects, `Ω`

, are defiend implicitly. However, their block diagonal covariance structure can be controlled by an `@covariance`

block. The formula definitions of the `@random`

block also define a fixed effect per term of the formula, thus one should always define the random effects of a `PumasEMModel`

directly in terms of the parameters that exibit variation, rather than of the 0-mean `η`

s used for calculating parameters in the `@pre`

block in a traditional `PumasModel`

:

```
@emmodel begin
@random begin
CL ~ 1 + logwt | LogNormal # CL = exp(log(μ_CL) + μ_CL_logwt * logwt + η_CL)
Vc ~ 1 | LogNormal # Vc = exp(log(μ_Vc) + η_Vc)
F ~ 1 | LogitNormal # F = 1/(1 + exp(-(logit(μ_F) + η_F)))
lm ~ 1 | Normal # lm = μ_lm + η_lm
end
@covariance 3,1
@error begin # PumasEMModels require `@error` blocks
y ~ ProportionalNormal(CL)
end
end
# output
PumasEMModel
Parameters with random effects:
CL ~ (1, :logwt) | LogNormal
Vc ~ (1,) | LogNormal
F ~ (1,) | LogitNormal
lm ~ (1,) | Normal
```

The `@covariance`

block specifies that the covariance matrix of the four random effects (the `η`

parameters) has a `3×3`

diagonal block, shared by `η_CL`

, `η_Vc`

, and `η_F`

, and a `1×1`

block for `η_lm`

. For more discussion, see the `PumasEMModel-Domains`

documentation. Covariates appearing in the `@param`

and `@random`

formulas of a `PumasEMModel`

, e.g. `logwt`

above, do not need to be specified in the `@covariates`

block. If one of these covariates also appears in another model block, then they must still be specified in the `@covariates`

block, even if they appear in a formula. Covariates in a `PumasEMModel`

formula must be constant with respect to time.

Parameter corresponding to `1`

in the formulas specify the baseline, and are given in the parameter's natural scale. Coefficients corresponding to covariates are unconstrained. Thus in the above example, `CL = exp(log(μ_CL) + μ_CL_logwt * logwt + η_CL)`

, or equivalently, `CL = μ_CL * exp(μ_CL_logwt * logwt) * exp(η_CL)`

.

`@covariance`

Specify the size of the diagonal blocks in the covariance matrix of the random effects. For example:

`@covariance 2 1 2`

Specifies a block-diagonal covariance matrix with `2×2`

, `1×1`

and `2×2`

diagonal blocks. If unspecified, the default is to be fully diagonal, e.g. if there are 5 random effects total, the default is:

`@covariance 1 1 1 1 1`

`@covariates`

Syntax and behavior is the same as in a `PumasModel`

. Note that covariates used inside `@param`

and `@random`

do not need to be specified in `@covariates`

.

`@pre`

Same behavior and syntax as in a `PumasModel`

. The `pre`

block is executed before the `@dynamics`

, and the defined variables are available in each.

`@init`

Initial conditions for the dynamical variables. Same behavior and syntax as in a `PumasModel`

.

`@dynamics`

Specify the dynamical model. Same behavior and syntax as in a `PumasModel`

.

`@post`

Same behavior and syntax as the `@pre`

block, but it is executed after the `@dynamics`

. Because the `@error`

block does not allow evaluating expressions or defining new variables, any variables needed in the `@error`

block and dependent on the `@dynamics`

should be defined in the `@post`

block.

`@error`

: Statistical modeling of observed variables in a `PumasEMModel`

This is the `PumasEMModel`

equivalent of the `@derived`

block in a `PumasModel`

. The primary differences are that

- While the
`@derived`

block applies per subject to vectors of observations across time, the`@error`

block is mapped across time points, like the`@pre`

and`@post`

blocks. - The dispersion parameters of the
`@error`

block are defiend implicitly by the specified error model. - The
`@error`

model does not allow for any post processing; this must be done in the`@post`

block.

```
@emmodel begin
@random begin
CL ~ 1 | LogNormal
Vc ~ 1 | LogNormal
end
@dynamics Central1
@post begin
cp = Central/Vc
end
@error begin
dv ~ ProportionalNormal(cp) # dv ~ Normal(cp, abs(cp)*σ)
end
end
```

See the page on `PumasEMMOdel-Error models`

for more information and a table of supported error models.